The last news introduced the current situation of the polyester staple fiber market in terms of raw material cost, production expansion cycle, and supply capacity. Today, we continue to analyze this issue from other dimensions.
Analysis of the demand for polyester staple fiber
The epidemic and weak demand have led to a sharp decline in the start of the downstream weaving industry, which has basically been at a historically low level for the same period. The downstream weaving sector has maintained a low level of less than 50% after the outbreak of the epidemic in some parts of the country in April this year, which lasted for 4 months. , the overall low start-up situation is shifting upwards, polyester yarn is relatively acceptable in the early stage, but the recent downward trend is obvious, mainly due to power cuts, Yiwu epidemic and so on. For example, in the middle and late July, polyester yarn enterprises in Changle area decreased collectively, enterprises with 100,000 spindles and above decreased by 1-20%; enterprises with 100,000 spindles decreased to 50%.
1. Domestic demand for polyester staple fiber
In July, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, and knitted textiles was 96.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. From January to July, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, and knitted textiles nationwide was 723.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. Its cumulative growth rate has been negative for 5 consecutive months. Although the monthly data has been slightly repaired, the overall situation is still weak. The online retail sales of physical goods of clothing increased by 2.4% in June, an increase of 4% from the -1.6% in May, but lower than the level at the beginning of the year and previous years, and only slightly better than 2020. Domestic real estate problems have suppressed demand for home textiles. With the progress of epidemic prevention and control, business operations in all walks of life have gradually returned to normal, but textiles and clothing are non-essential goods, and the marginal improvement is limited. In the future, the global economic situation may be more severe, and the consumption of textile and clothing is still not optimistic.
2. The foreign trade sector of polyester staple fiber
In the first half of the year, my country's textile export data was relatively good, but the current foreign situation is not very optimistic. The inventory of clothing and clothing fabrics of foreign American wholesalers has been increasing since July last year, and has now reached a new high in the past ten years. The inventory-to-sales ratio has also increased, and many countries around the world may also enter recession. In addition to the United States, the European economy is also struggling, and the EU's textile and apparel retail index has gradually moved down. In the face of rising benchmark interest rates and high inflation, consumers may cut non-essential spending, making consumer demand likely to face a slowdown, and non-essential clothing is also the first to bear the brunt. Therefore, the foreign trade sector may face a decline in the second half of the year. In recent years, the export of textiles and garments from countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam has developed rapidly, and the market has shifted.
Comprehensive analysis of the future prospects of polyester staple fiber
There are many plans for new production capacity in 2022 and 2023, but from 2021 to 2022, due to losses and the epidemic, the uncertainty about the operation of the device has increased, and the staple fiber industry has entered a production expansion cycle, but there has been a partial delay, and the implementation of the device's production needs to be further implemented. follow up. However, with the launch of later production capacity, the competition in the staple fiber market will be more intense under the concentrated increase in production capacity and the advantages of integration.
In the first half of the year, the overall oversupply and demand led to product losses, and the factory load declined significantly. In the second half of the year, there may be a slight increase in the start-up load. However, in the medium and long term, the overall low start-up will continue, and the growth rate of production may not be as expected (less than the growth rate of production capacity). The export volume has gradually recovered, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the export growth rate is also limited.
The speculative demand in the market and the stocking of raw materials by the downstream spinning mills have both declined significantly, and the market has gradually emerged to order. With the gradual progress of epidemic prevention and control, the operations of all walks of life have gradually returned to normal. Under the influence of domestic consumption stimulus policies, demand may improve, but textiles and clothing are non-essential goods, and the marginal improvement is limited.
In 2022, the global economic shock will be more severe. The instability of monetary policies such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, epidemic, energy shortage, interest rate hikes, etc., superimposed on the high cost and low demand of polyester staple fiber itself, will increase the high volatility of the market. And the second half or will continue.
Staple fiber manufacturer
Jiangyin Yongbang Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces various white and black regenerated short fibers. The staple fibers produced are of high quality and trustworthy. For purchase, please feel free to contact us, we will serve you wholeheartedly.
